Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Rowand to the Giants - Move 1?

OK, so the Giants just signed CF Aaron Rowand to a 5 year $60 million deal. I have mixed feelings on this deal...I LOVE everything I've heard about Rowand. He's a gamer, he'll quite literally run through walls for the team, as he did when he legendarily broke his nose hitting the OF wall making a fantastic catch, and he'll demand max effort from his teammates.

Considering manager Bruce Bochy was concerned there wasn't enough of a warrior mentality in the clubhouse this directly addresses that, and Rowand should be the anti-Bonds with respect to showing the younger players how things are done in the bigs.

But 5 years at $12mil/per? Wow. Reports had no other teams offering more than 3 years. So the Giants, as they always seem to do, overpaid, perhaps not in dollars but in years.

Then again, perhaps they had to. San Francisco, once a premium destination for free agents, is becoming sort of a wasteland. The team isn't good, the park will kill hitting stats...and when Detroit faced these same obstacles a few years ago they overpaid grossly to get free agents interested, notably Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, and I'd say that worked out pretty well for them.

Still, this move seems to be at odds with the get younger philosophy the Giants are trying to employ. Hard to see how this move alone makes up any ground in the west. Yes they kept their stud starting pitching, but they still don't have a major league lineup.

Unless this is just move 1. In Andrew Baggerly's piece in the Merc today Sabean is quoted as saying they are out of the market for Hideki Matsui, and they are talking to Pedro Feliz about a 2 year deal. Mistake, and mistake again.

I wasn't a big fan of the Matsui deal to begin with, mostly for the same reasons I'm lukewarm on Rowand - each move, by itself, does nothing to close the gap in the west, and you're not getting players that will grow and peak with your young pitching.

But, now that they've leapt in to the brink I think they need to follow it up with more moves. Here's how:

Trade Jonathan Sanchez, Brad Hennessey and Dave Roberts for Hideki Matsui. If the Yankees would take a lesser arm than Hennessey to pair with Sanchez great, but considering the Giants are in the over-paying business this looks like the deal to make. Maybe the Yankees throw in a young league average prospect to fill out the deal.

On the Yankees end they get two young live arms, which can either give them the flexibility to throw Ian Kennedy in to the Santana trade and get that done, or at least give them options both for their bullpen and starting rotation if the other kids in the rotation wear down (which history says at least one will). They also get an expensive but useful 4th OF who can provide decent defense, steal a big base late in a game (ask the Red Sox how important that can be), and lead off the 25 or so games Damon will miss with nagging injuries. Yes, he's expensive, but the Yankees can afford it and they like depth and speed and he gives them both.

Then the Giants trade grade B prospects for Scott Rolen and his entire deal. The Cards get rid of Rolen and his entire salary, the Giants take on money to keep talent, which they desperately need to hold on to. Let the Cards sign Pedro Feliz, the Giants have danced that dance.

Now you have a lineup that looks like this:

Winn RF
Frandsen/Durham 2B
Rowand CF
Matsui LF
Rolen 3B
Molina C
Ortmeier/Aurilia 1B
Vizquel SS
P

And, you've kept your stud starting pitching, so you can roll out Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Zito and Correia every 5 days.

Is this ideal? No, of course not. They probably are still not a contender, though they are respectable now if everyone stays healthy. Are Matsui and Rolen expensive injury risks? Absolutely. I would have advocated taking your lumps and building slowly with youth so your hitting matures with your young pitching, but now that they've made the Rowand deal they almost have to follow up with something like this.

The Giants stated last year they were going young, then didn't. They've done the same this year, but so far aren't. If they're not going to tear the whole thing down at least do the patchwork thing smartly.

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